News · Elections and voting · National (US)
Polls, odds and forecasts can track the campaign, but the 2026 elections will determine control of Congress in 2027.
Key takeaways
The 2026 midterms have not yet determined which party will control the House or Senate in 2027. The two chambers must be assessed separately: an advantage shown for one chamber does not establish the outcome of the other.
No poll, set of odds or election forecast is a final count. Until ballots are counted, “winning” can describe only an estimate or a snapshot of voter opinion—not control of Congress.
The House and Senate outlooks also cannot be reduced to a single national result. Control will come from the combined outcomes of the contests that determine membership in each chamber. A national political trend may help describe the broader environment, but it does not itself award control.
Polls measure voter preferences among the people surveyed during a stated period. Their findings can differ because surveys may cover different places, dates or groups of voters.
Odds express an estimated probability rather than a vote share. They can change before Election Day and should not be read as a declaration that a party has secured either chamber.
Election forecasts use stated methods to estimate possible outcomes. Different forecasts may reach different conclusions because their assumptions and inputs can vary. Readers comparing forecasts should check when each was updated and whether it addresses the House, the Senate or both.
The clearest current answer is procedural: the campaign is ongoing, and the election results will decide control. Any updated outlook should identify its date, measurement method and the chamber it covers.
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