CBS poll: Democrats keep House edge as price concerns persist

Democrats hold a narrow edge

The CBS News Battleground Tracker continues to show Democrats ahead in national House vote preference, while its House model estimates that the party has an edge for a narrow majority of seats.

Opposition to Trump administration policies and lower stated turnout intention among Republicans are driving that advantage. Republican respondents are less likely than Democrats to say they will definitely vote.

The difference is tied partly to dissatisfaction over prices. Republicans who say the administration is not focused enough on prices are less likely to say they will definitely vote than Republicans who believe it is. The same pattern appears among Republicans who say GOP candidates are not discussing the cost of living enough.

Republicans who think President Donald Trump is doing a worse job in his second term than in his first are almost 20 percentage points less likely to say they will definitely vote.

Prices shape voters’ views

Voters most often use prices to judge the economy, rather than measures such as gross domestic product, employment, stocks or mortgage rates. Most say Trump’s policies are increasing food and grocery prices, and most say the war in Iran is raising gasoline prices.

Most voters also say the administration has not focused enough on reducing costs. By a wide margin, voters see Trump administration policies, rather than former President Joe Biden’s policies, as responsible for current economic conditions.

Hispanic likely voters rank the economy and inflation as their leading concerns. Republican support among that group is below Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote in the 2024 presidential election, a change that could matter across multiple House districts, including districts redrawn during the past year. Most Hispanic voters also say the administration is deporting more people than they expected.