DDHQ director says Mike Rogers’s time is “running out”

DDHQ’s assessment

Scott Tranter, Decision Desk HQ’s director of data science, said Sunday that “time is running out” for Republican Mike Rogers to close the forecast gap with Democratic opponent Abdul El-Sayed. DDHQ currently assigns El-Sayed a 67 percent probability of winning in November and Rogers a 33 percent probability.

That puts El-Sayed ahead in DDHQ’s model, but the percentages are not ballots already cast or a final result. Tranter’s statement describes the amount of time Rogers has to improve his position within the forecast before the election.

The candidates in the forecast

Rogers is the Republican candidate and holds the model’s 33 percent probability. Tranter focused his comment on Rogers because DDHQ’s current forecast places him behind El-Sayed as the November election approaches.

El-Sayed is the Democratic candidate and holds the model’s 67 percent probability. DDHQ gives him the higher current chance of winning, while still assigning Rogers a probability of victory.

What the numbers mean

The two percentages describe DDHQ’s modeled chances for the candidates, not their expected shares of the vote. A 67 percent probability for El-Sayed does not establish him as the winner, just as Rogers’s 33 percent figure does not remove him from the contest.

Tranter’s “running out” wording signals urgency for Rogers within the forecast rather than an election call. The model’s percentages can be watched through November, when the election determines the result.