Election Day puts control of Congress before voters

Election Day arrives

Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine whether the balance of power on Capitol Hill changes next year. Voters will decide contests that collectively establish which party controls the House and which holds the Senate majority.

The House and Senate are separate parts of that decision. Control could change in one chamber, both chambers or neither, and the outcomes will shape Washington’s power structure next year.

What the forecasts show

Decision Desk HQ, The Hill’s nonpartisan election forecasting partner, gives Democrats the advantage in the contest for House control. Its model also tilts toward a Democratic Senate majority.

Those projections describe expected outcomes before voting is complete; they are not election results. The final balance of power depends on the results of individual House and Senate races across the country.

The House forecast points to a possible change in control because Democrats are seeking to take the chamber back. The Senate projection concerns which party will hold the majority after the midterm contests are decided.

What to follow

The first question is whether House control changes hands. The second is which party emerges with the Senate majority, a result that must be assessed separately from the House outcome.

Together, those two decisions will establish the balance between the parties on Capitol Hill next year. They will also show whether the election results match the direction of Decision Desk HQ’s pre-election forecasts.