James Blair sees a path for GOP in 2026 midterms

Blair’s assessment

James Blair, a senior political adviser to President Donald Trump, said Republicans have a path to keep their majorities in both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections. He stopped short of predicting how many House or Senate seats the party would hold.

Blair said Trump would campaign extensively to help protect those majorities. He also acknowledged that Democrats have advantages this election cycle, while arguing that the period after Labor Day would be central to Republican efforts.

Blair served as deputy White House chief of staff until April. He now leads MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, which has begun spending in Senate races. He previously worked as Trump’s political director during the 2024 campaign.

Headwinds for Republicans

The president’s party has historically lost congressional seats during midterm elections. Republicans also enter the campaign amid voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the war with Iran.

adults approved of Trump’s job performance. His approval rating for handling the Iran war was 31%.

Blair said polling he has reviewed indicates that the war has become less important to some voters as conditions have settled. He described the midterms as shaped by a combination of national issues and concerns specific to individual states and districts.

Republican campaign strategy

Blair said Republican candidates should ask voters to compare them directly with their Democratic opponents rather than treating the election as a judgment on whether every aspect of the country is going well. He also wants Republican campaigns to associate Democratic candidates with national party leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Vice President JD Vance delivered a similar message Thursday at a private breakfast in Dallas for Republicans from competitive states, calling for the party to frame the election around national issues.