Redrawn districts shape GOP path to a House majority

House control remains unsettled

Republicans are focusing on 10 Democratic-held House districts as they seek to retain control during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. Fox News Power Rankings place Democrats at 215 seats and Republicans at 201, with 19 races rated as toss-ups.

A party needs 218 seats for a House majority if all 435 seats are filled. Under those rankings, neither party has secured enough rated seats to reach that threshold without winning some of the unresolved contests. Redistricting is a central factor in two Democratic-held districts where Trump’s 2024 margins increased under new boundaries.

Alabama and Florida seats

Rep. Shomari Figures is seeking reelection in Alabama’s 2nd District. Alabama created the earlier district after a 2023 Supreme Court decision required a second district where Black voters could meaningfully influence the general election. Following the court’s 2026 ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, the district was redrawn again; the new boundaries would have favored Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. Fox News and the Cook Political Report rate the seat “likely Republican.”

Rep. Darren Soto is seeking a sixth term in Florida’s 9th District. Florida lawmakers changed the state’s congressional map before the November election, and the revised district would have favored Trump by nearly 18 points in 2024. Fox News rates the contest “lean Republican,” while the Cook Political Report rates it “likely Republican.”