Trafalgar poll puts Graham, Andrews one point apart

A one-point difference

A Trafalgar Group poll released Saturday evening found Republican Sen. Darline Graham leading Democratic opponent Annie Andrews by one percentage point in South Carolina’s Senate contest. Trafalgar is a right-leaning polling firm.

The survey’s margin of error was just under three percentage points, wider than the measured difference between the candidates. Because the one-point spread falls within that range, the result does not identify a clear leader. The description of the race as a dead heat reflects that uncertainty rather than an exact tie between Graham and Andrews.

A margin of error represents the amount by which a poll’s result could vary because it surveyed a sample rather than every voter. It applies to each candidate’s measured support, not only to the difference between them.

How to read the finding

For Graham, the poll records a narrow lead that does not exceed the survey’s margin of error. For Andrews, it records a narrow deficit subject to the same level of uncertainty. Neither finding is an official vote count or a final election result.

The central finding is the distance between the candidates: one percentage point. Additional surveys may produce different results because polling organizations can contact different groups of voters and conduct their work at different times.

The official outcome will be determined through South Carolina’s election process, not by any individual poll. Until votes are cast and counted, the Trafalgar survey remains one measurement of the contest.